Pfizer Inc.
CEO : Dr. Albert Bourla D.V.M., DVM, Ph.D.
Quarterly earnings growth(YoY,%)
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | EPS | Release Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Q4 | 2.8% YoY | 67.5% | 48.3% | 2023-01-31 |
Dr. Albert Bourla says,
Pfizer’s Revenue and Growth in 2022
- Pfizer generated more than $100 billion in revenue for the first time in its 174-year history
- Strong operational revenue growth of 7% to 9% is expected in 2023, excluding revenues from COVID-19 products and foreign exchange impact
- Pfizer expects to have up to 19 new products or indications in the market by the end of 2023
Pfizer’s Potential Launches
- 15 of the 19 potential launches are from Pfizer’s internal pipeline, and the remaining 4 came via recent business development deals
- Pfizer expects these potential launches to generate 2030 revenues that will more than offset the expected losses due to the LOEs between 2025 and 2030
- Pfizer aims to add at least $25 billion of risk-adjusted revenues to its 2030 topline expectations through business-development activity
Pfizer’s COVID-19 Portfolio
- 2023 is expected to be a transition year, representing a low point in Pfizer’s COVID-related revenues
- Pfizer expects COVID-19 vaccination rates to increase starting from 2025, assuming the successful development and approval of a COVID/flu combination product
- Paxlovid is expected to maintain very high share despite additional competitive entries, given its strong benefit-risk profile and brand recognition
Pfizer’s R&D Investment
- Pfizer plans to increase its R&D spend by at least 8.7% in 2023 to $12.4 billion and $13.4 billion range
- Pfizer aims to further improve its industry-leading success rates and cycle times
Dave Denton says,
Q4 2022 Performance Highlights
- Revenues grew 13% operationally, primarily driven by Comirnaty’s strong growth in developed markets.
- Revenues excluding COVID-related products grew 5% operationally and 3% if recently acquired products are excluded.
- Reported diluted EPS grew by 48% to $0.87, while adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.14 grew 69% on an operational basis in the quarter.
- Foreign exchange movements significantly impacted results, reducing fourth quarter revenues by approximately $2.5 billion, or 11%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share by $0.19, or 24%, compared to LY.
2023 Financial Outlook
- Pfizer expects revenues of between $67 billion to $71 billion, reflecting an operational decline of 31% at the midpoint, primarily driven by COVID-product revenue decline.
- Revenues from business excluding COVID are projected to grow between 7% and 9% on an operational basis in 2023.
- Total company revenue declines are entirely driven by COVID products, which are expected to go from peak in 2022 to low point in 2023 before potentially returning to growth in 2024 and beyond.
- Costs and expenses are expected to be significantly higher in 2023 versus 2022, primarily due to investments in SI&A and R&D to support Pfizer’s near- and longer-term growth plans.
- Investments in R&D and SI&A in advance of revenue contributions from new products will be maintained, with the P&L growing into this cost base as new product revenues begin to be fully realized, with margins improving as a result.
Key Assumptions for 2023 Guidance
- Strong revenue growth of 7 to 9% in our business excluding COVID products.
- Additional investments in SI&A and R&D to support Pfizer’s near- and longer-term growth plans.
- Continued patient demand for our COVID-related products worldwide, with vaccination rates declining slightly and utilization of treatments slightly increasing.
- Rephasing of the European Commission Comirnaty contract over multiple years versus full delivery in 2023.
- U.S. commercialization of COVID products in the second half of 2023.
Q & A sessions,
Assumptions on COVID and Vaccinations
- The assumption is that the disease will continue in the foreseeable future and vaccinations will stabilize to a certain degree.
- Assumptions are that people will receive 1.3 in the beginning and then go down 1.1, 1.2 doses per year as normal booster.
- Assumptions are reasonable with the expectation that COVID will remain the same and compliance with health authorities will be less.
- Combination vaccines will be a pivotal moment and likely become the choice of many due to convenience and zero co-pay.
BD Priorities
- Business development is a big priority, with a big team screening opportunities.
Market Share and Volume
- Market share is expected to be maintained at 70-75% due to loyalty and excellent profile.
- Volume is increasing, but market share is dropping.
Flu Market Expectations
- The introduction of combination products could change the flu market.
- 25% of the population is expected to go for annual booster for COVID and adding another 5% is reasonable.
- Over time, it is projected to move closer to 50% with 40% projected for 2024.
Financial Performance
- 2022 was the highest-ever revenue, profits, and number of patients treated with Pfizer’s medicines.
- The best years of Pfizer are ahead due to significant capital position and productive R&D, manufacturing, and commercial engines.
No bad stock 